Pixar Animation Studios has long been a household name when it comes to groundbreaking animation paired with touching, memorable stories. The studio made history back in 1995 with Toy Story, the first-ever full-length movie crafted entirely through computer animation.
Over the years, Pixar has delighted audiences with a string of hits — from the charming Monsters, Inc. (2001) and Cars (2006) to the emotionally rich Up (2009), Inside Out (2015), and Coco (2017). These films not only pushed animation technology to new heights but also proved that animated movies can tell stories that resonate with both kids and adults.
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However, the entertainment world is constantly evolving, and Pixar’s journey hasn’t been without bumps recently. With the changing habits of audiences, the rise of streaming, and a global pandemic shaking up the industry, the landscape for new original animated films has become unpredictable. Pixar’s latest release is stepping into this challenging environment, with many wondering if it will restore the studio’s once rock-solid box office reputation or continue a streak of disappointments.
The past few years have been particularly turbulent for Pixar. The COVID-19 shutdown hit just as Onward (2020) was hitting theaters, cutting its theatrical run short. Soon after, Pixar’s next three films — Soul (2020), Luca (2021), and Turning Red (2022) — skipped theaters entirely, premiering directly on Disney+.
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Things didn’t improve much with Lightyear in 2022. Despite expectations tied to the Toy Story legacy, Lightyear flopped, reportedly costing Disney over $100 million in losses. The fallout was significant: Disney laid off almost every executive involved with the film, signaling frustration at Pixar’s struggles and raising questions about the studio’s future direction.
Yet in 2024, Pixar reminded everyone it still had the ability to capture hearts and wallets when Inside Out 2 was released. The sequel shattered expectations, grossing nearly $1.7 billion worldwide. Not only did it become Pixar’s highest-grossing film ever, but it also ranked as the second most successful animated movie in history. For a moment, it looked like Pixar was back on top.
Now, however, all eyes are on Elio, Pixar’s new original film. Announced back in 2022, Elio centers on a boy with an obsession for aliens who suddenly finds himself abducted into the Communiverse — a vast interplanetary council populated by aliens from across the galaxies. Mistaken as Earth’s delegate, Elio must navigate this strange new world to prevent an impending cosmic disaster.
Originally scheduled for a March 1, 2024, theatrical release, Elio was pushed back due to the SAG/AFTRA strike. Disney first moved it to June 13, 2025, and then shifted it again by a week to June 20 to avoid clashing with the live-action How to Train Your Dragon movie, which is expected to be a major box office contender.
Unfortunately, that schedule adjustment may not do much to improve Elio’s chances at the box office.
Reports based on ticket pre-sales and industry tracking now project a domestic opening weekend between $35 million and $45 million. This would be a strikingly weak start, especially considering Elio’s massive budget, rumored to be close to $300 million.
Pixar’s ‘ELIO’ is early tracking to earn $35M-$45M on its domestic box office opening weekend.
• Budget was nearly $300M
• Potentially becoming the 2nd worst debut for a Pixar film
Pixar’s ‘ELIO’ is early tracking to earn $35M-$45M on its domestic box office opening weekend.
• Budget was nearly $300M
• Potentially becoming the 2nd worst debut for a Pixar film pic.twitter.com/3XuV2hof1c
— The Hollywood Handle (@HollywoodHandle) May 30, 2025
The reasons behind these shaky projections are widely debated. Many point fingers at Disney’s marketing strategy, which has been underwhelming compared to past Pixar blockbusters. While Inside Out 2 and other hits benefited from heavy promotion, Elio has largely flown under the radar.
At the same time, Disney’s focus on other properties — like the Pixar series Win Or Lose and the live-action remake of Lilo & Stitch — have overshadowed this new film.
Another common complaint is the ballooning production costs for these animated features. Inside Out 2 had an estimated budget of $200 million, but Elio is rumored to have cost an eye-popping $300 million. Some fans and critics feel studios should aim for more modest budgets to keep box office expectations realistic.
people saying this is an audience issue but a $45 million domestic opening weekend would be perfectly reasonable if the movie hadn’t cost $100 million MORE to make than inside out 2. make movies on smaller budgets and your box office will be more proportional 🤷
people saying this is an audience issue but a $45 million domestic opening weekend would be perfectly reasonable if the movie hadn’t cost $100 million MORE to make than inside out 2. make movies on smaller budgets and your box office will be more proportional 🤷 https://t.co/VDjcVPLI0N
— farmer kansas (@imnotkassie) May 31, 2025
Still, there are voices defending Pixar and Disney. They argue the company is stuck in a no-win scenario. Critics accuse Disney of leaning too heavily on sequels and live-action remakes, yet when original stories like Elio are released, they don’t always attract big crowds.
Consider 2023’s Elemental — a critically praised film that failed to catch fire at the box office but performed well on Disney+. This highlights the growing divide between theatrical success and streaming popularity.
With Elio set to hit theaters nationwide on June 20, starring Yonas Kibreab as Elio, Zoe Saldaña as Aunt Olga, Brad Garrett as Lord Grigon, and Jameela Jamil as Ambassador Questa, the stakes are high for Pixar. This film could be a bellwether for whether audiences still crave original, theatrical animated films or prefer to wait for streaming releases.
Are you planning to see Elio in theaters this summer, or will you wait for it to arrive on Disney+? What do you believe is behind Pixar’s recent struggles at the box office? We want to hear from you — join the conversation by leaving your thoughts in the comments below!
